bellwether counties epoch times

Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Medicare is becoming a joke. "Statistically Impossible" That 19 of 20 Bellweather Counties All Voted For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. I think we needed somebody like him.. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. bellwether counties epoch times - crownxmas.com While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. I think its very political right now, honestly. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The counties that predict presidential election winners didn't this Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. I dont think you should take that away from me.. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. Its horrible. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. I kind of keep in my bubble. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. SACRAMENTO . Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. Youre not getting anybody perfect. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine But according to the. Jim Hoft. I dont watch TV. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. Im not happy with either party. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. DATA: Trump Won 95% Of Bellwether Counties, Making Biden Win The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Bellwether Counties Historical Performance 1984 to 2020 Farming also is huge here. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. This is a high farming community.. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. I find that hard to believe. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. She shook her head at the high price of gas. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. I am under that impression. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC Bellwether - Wikipedia The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? Required fields are marked *. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. I dont listen to the news. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. No evidence for systematic voter fraud: A guide to statistical claims And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. Im not even sure what direction were going.. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. bellwether counties epoch times It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. Our roads need to be fixed. But thats not the picture I look at. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. Nothing is free, Hawker said. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . And its never going to come back.. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. He considers Trump pro-life. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. They run the gamut from. . Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Please read our comments policy before commenting. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. 2016 Trump. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. I just want Trump in. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. Review: At Fall for Dance, Resilience Takes Center Stage Your email address will not be published. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. Bremer County, Iowa What happened to our Democratic Party? In addition to Florida Gov. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Fact check: Joe Biden won most votes ever and fewest counties - USA TODAY I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. MORE evidence: It looks like Biden outperformed only in counties that He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. Kyiv City Ballet US Premiere | Dance at Northrop People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. List of election bellwether counties in the United States He says Democratic Gov. I quit voting once out of the union.. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. Their fear is real, mine is. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. He loves this country. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. Donald Trump Won Record 16 Bellwether Counties - Swarajyamag We need election reform.. Its too big. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. 'I Should Start Voting'. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Weve never done that before.. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. Logistically, its a disaster. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Pre-performance Lobby events. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China.

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